What California’s Political Crystal Ball Tells Us – POLITICO

Every two years, the primaries provide a wonderful opportunity to look ahead and take a look at the results of the fall elections. This crystal ball moment comes courtesy of the California front-two main system. Add up the overall Democratic vote and the overall Republican vote in each House primary, and you get a pretty solid picture of what the general election will look like — with the Democratic vote typically serving as the party’s floor in November.

In 213 California congressional races from 2012 to 2020 that featured a Democrat and a Republican, the median race saw Democrats gain 2.1 percentage points from the overall primary, while Republicans lost half a point.. In total, the Democrats won in nearly two-thirds of the races. If you just look at 2012-2018 — a reasonable thing to consider, since the 2020 presidential nominating contest pushed Democratic engagement to an unusual and unbalanced degree against Republicans in that year’s primary — Democrats improved from Primary to General in 74% of races. The median gain for Democrats in those years was 3.3 points, while the median decline for Republicans was 1.6 points.

Given these facts, here’s what the 2022 California primaries told us about the 2022 general election. — with the caveat that there are still a handful of votes left to count in a few state jurisdictions:

– Battleground Orange County may fire all incumbents. It wouldn’t be unprecedented for any of the four battleground districts touching Orange County to flip — but it would have to be a big change from the primary. Republicans won 57% and 59%, respectively, in the primaries for Reps. Michelle Steel and Young Kim’s districts. Democrats, meanwhile, broke through the majority bar in Rep. Katie Porter’s and Rep. Mike Levin’s districts.

Keep an eye out for GOP Rep. Ken Calvert. Let’s start this one with a caveat: Nothing about the political environment so far this election cycle suggests that Democrats should be competing to unseat Trump +1 districts, like Calvert’s CA-41. And yet the 15-term Republican congressman faced talk through 2021 and early 2022 over GOP challengers, then he got just 52.8% combined with the other Republican. in the June election. Democrat Will Rollins, the former federal prosecutor who stepped forward through November alongside Calvert, tried to kick off the race in nonpartisan terms, according to the Riverside Press-Enterprise.

— Rep. Mike Garcia lives on the razor’s edge again. One of 2020’s closest House races could head in that direction again – with the same cast of characters, too. Garcia, the Republican incumbent, and two other GOP candidates collectively secured a dangerous 50.4 percent in the primary. Democrat Christy Smith has already lost twice to Garcia, but is back for another try in November.

– Representative of the GOP. David Valadao has already done the hardest part. The congressman saw Republican competition (some of which was bolstered by interference from Democrats) after he voted to impeach Donald Trump last year, though he will face a tough race against the lawmaker. State Democrat Rudy Salas in the fall. However, Valadao and the other Republicans obtained nearly 55% in the primary. The Democrats overcame a bigger primary deficit to beat Valadao in 2018, but that was of course a completely different political environment. Salas has his work cut out to close the gap in November.

What does all of this mean for the country as a whole? Good question! Even though California looks less promising than other places, Republicans can still ride an election spree — that’s exactly what they did in 2014. And some of these districts could defy historical precedent, too. strong as it is, under pressure from a large GOP political environment. Or, it’s possible it means we’re overestimating what the beautiful political environment really means for the GOP on the ground.

Luckily, we soon have another data point to help us sort it all out: Washington State’s multiparty primaries in August. Stay tuned.

Send all your electoral advice and information to:[email protected] Where @PoliticoScott.

Days until Maryland primaries: 14

Days to Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington primaries: 28

Days before general election: 126

Days until World Cup 2022: 138

Days until 2024 election: 854

Would you like to receive this newsletter every day of the week? To subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily political news and other information you need to take action on the biggest stories of the day.

SEARCH FOR BETA-TESTERS — Were you glued to the election results in 2020? The POLITICO Interactive News team is building the next generation of our results pages, and we need your help to make them the best. Sign up to become a beta tester and get a preview of our work.

IS THE Z FOR ZEAL? OR ZONKED? — “Anti-abortion fight strains Democratic alliance with Gen Zby POLITICO’s Elena Schneider: “A debate rages within the Democratic Party about whether it is giving its base — particularly those under 30, the generation that most strongly supports abortion rights — sufficient motivation to keep voting for it. the party, as federal Democrats struggle to significantly push back the overthrow of Roe vs. Wade. The fear is that an already deflated Democratic base will not show up in November… Some Democrats point out that the Biden administration and Congress must do more to show their rage – and their willingness to take meaningful action – to reflect the passion seen for young people .”

“There’s a fine line between recent events pushing someone to never vote again or pushing someone to vote with this righteous anger and bring friends with them,” said Maxwell Frost, a 25-year-old Democrat. who is running for a seat in Congress from Florida. . “It’s up to our leaders to decide which direction it’s going to go.”

NEXT PRIMARY UP—”Democrats meddle in Trump-Hogan proxy war in Marylandby Zach Montellaro of POLITICO: “The Democratic Governors Association launched a new ad on Friday… ‘Dan Cox: Too Close to Trump, Too Conservative for Maryland’, the narrator intones. But the end goal of the ad isn’t to sink Cox. Instead, Democrats hope to boost it in the July 19 Republican primary for governor, which turned into a close nomination battle with former Commerce Secretary Kelly Schulz – the preferred successor to limited-term GOP Governor Larry Hogan.

ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Add another group to the list participating in the Democratic member-vs.-member contest between Representatives Andy Levin and Haley Stevens in Michigan: The Detroit Chamber of Commerce sides with Stevens, granting an endorsement through its PAC, according to the Detroit News.

– The House GOP super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund has come out with a new set of digital ad campaigns supporting Republicans in the upcoming primaries, according to FEC disclosures. Candidates include: Allan Fung (RI-02), Juan Ciscomani (AZ-06), Tom Barrett (MI-07), Amanda Adkins (KS-03), Colin Schmitt (NY-18), Tanya Wheeless (AZ-04). The group also put $50,000 in digital ads behind Marc Molinaro ahead of his August 23 NY-19 special.

— “Kemp Racing to stay competitive with Abrams in fundraisingby POLITICO’s Brittany Gibson: “When new fundraising figures are released in a few days, the disclosures will likely show Abrams taking a significant lead over Kemp. The incumbent has therefore stepped up its fundraising efforts to keep up with the times as much as possible. … That includes in-person introductions to some of the party’s biggest donors. Last October, Kemp flew to Wisconsin to meet Liz Uihlein, the billionaire CEO of shipping giant Uline, which has a campus in Braselton, Georgia, northeast of Atlanta.

The latest announcement of the pro-Gov. Laura Kelly Kansas Values ​​Institute links GOP Attorney General Derek Schmidtthe presumptive Republican gubernatorial candidate, to unpopular former Governor Sam Brownback.

A new corner by Beau Lane, one of the Republican candidates for the post of Secretary of State in Arizona, sets him up as a conservative foil against President Joe Biden. (Donald Trump has endorsed State Rep. Mark Finchem in the race, which has a primary on Aug. 2.)

— “Trump eyes early 2024 announcement as Jan. 6 review intensifiesby Michael Bender, Reid Epstein and Maggie Haberman of The New York Times: “Republicans are bracing for Donald J. Trump to announce an unusually early bid for the White House, a move designed in part to shield the former president from a flood of damaging revelations emerging from investigations into his attempts to cling to power after losing the 2020 election. … Mr. Trump has long hinted at a third consecutive bid for the White House and has campaigned for much of the past year. He has accelerated his planning in recent weeks as two investigations intensified and congressional testimony revealed new details about Mr Trump’s indifference to the threat of violence on January 6 and his refusal to act to stop an insurrection.

Trump’s ‘fear factor’ shows signs of waning as Republican 2024 hopes jockeyby Marc Caputo of NBC News: “Just this week, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem launched an ad aimed at presenting it to a national audience. Trump’s former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, publicly launched a possible presidential candidacy on Thursday at the start of Iowa State. And Trump’s former secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, has started targeting evangelical voters in Iowa and South Carolina with a new a d on the Supreme Court and religious liberty. Meanwhile, Trump’s estranged 2020 running mate, former Vice President Mike Pence, is to position yourself for an expected run against his former boss, while Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton has become a frequent visitor to Iowa and New Hampshire, another early voting state.

CODA — HEAD OF THE DAY — 76 fake charities shared a mailbox. The IRS approved them all.– New York Times

Source link