Labor leads the betting markets in the 2022 Victorian state election with four months until voters go to the polls – and betting sites don’t expect a coalition rebound if early.
The State of Victoria election takes place on 26 November and the 88 Lower Assembly seats and 40 Upper Council seats are voted on.
Labor currently enjoys a majority in the lower house and most seats in the upper house. They need at least 45 seats for a majority in the assembly this time around, which would then give them the right to appoint the state premier.
The campaign hasn’t gotten off to a good start yet, but that hasn’t stopped candidates from all political persuasions from testing their chances of winning each individual contest.
More than four million Victorians are eligible to vote in state elections later this year. And the bookmakers believe that the outcome only goes one way.
Victoria 2022 Election Odds
According to political betting sites, Victorians are more likely to vote for a Labor majority than any other outcome. The odds of 1.66 reflect a 60% chance of this outcome – and even a Labor minority is valued at 4.0 (25%).
Labor has been the most powerful party in Victorian state politics since winning the 2014 election. Since then, they have grown in popularity in the state, at the expense of the Coalition.
Indeed, the bookmakers estimate that a victory for the Coalition has only a 20% chance of occurring. Lib-Nat leader Matthew Guy needs 18 more seats than the 27 he currently has, without losing any to the Greens.
Ecological problems have increased in recent months due to the increasing number of bushfires across the country. The Greens, however, are 69.0 to win this election.
Victorian Election Questions
The leader of the ALP, Daniel Andrews, has his party leading the polls with 59.5% against 40.5% against the Coalition. This represents a 2.2% increase in support of the ruling party since its victory in the 2018 elections.
Premier Andrews has seen an increase in approval ratings and appears to be Guy’s preferred choice. In fact, 63.5% of Victorians have a positive view of his performance as Prime Minister so far.
However, Andrews is struggling with issues regarding the state of health care and health services, as well as the economy and spending.
Indeed, his critics say ‘allegations of corruption and lack of accountability and transparency, as well as government secrecy’ are the reason they will not vote Labour.
But generally there is positive sentiment from Labor voters – and there will likely be enough to secure Andrews another Labor majority.
A number of right-wing leaders are also lining up to fight at the polls. And while none will garner enough support for a majority, there could be a few seats up for grabs.
The Great Australian Party and Australian Federation Party candidates could well take votes away from the Coalition, making it even harder for Victoria’s hard core opposition to fight another future Labor government.
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