Professor known as ‘Mystic Meg of Political’ says Boris Johnson will be out by autumn | Boris Johnson

A professor dubbed the ‘Mystic Meg of political science’ after accurately predicting the outcome of the vote of confidence in Boris Johnson has predicted the prime minister will be out within six months.

Professor Jon Tonge, who teaches British politics at the University of Liverpool, blames himself for not betting on a contest he so precisely planned.

In a tweet posted 58 minutes before the result was announced, Tonge correctly predicted that 211 MPs or 59% would support Johnson. He also predicted that 147 or 41% would rebel. It turned out that there was only one elected because one deputy more than expected took part in the vote.

I’ll go for trusting Johnson 59% (211 votes) to 41% no trust (147) and deleting this tweet at 9:01 p.m. when it’s out.

— Jon Tonge (@JonTonge) June 6, 2022

Tonge now believes Johnson will be out in a few months. Speaking to the Guardian, he said: ‘I would be surprised if he was still prime minister in the fall. I’d say six months, but if anyone can resist, it’s Johnson.

He added: “He is the political escapologist of political escapologists. The problem he has is that the privileges committee will not hesitate to determine whether he misled Parliament. And that will probably be enough for him.

Tonge was hailed overnight for his incredible expertise. His academic colleague in politics, Professor Tim Bale, tweeted: “They call her the Mystic Meg of political science”while others compared Tonge to the French astrologer Nostradamus. He was also inundated with requests for lottery number predictions, horse racing and even the Love Island outcome.

He responded by tweeting, “Thank you for the very kind comments regarding the VONC forecast. Main elements: had no bet (sobs); you really don’t want my running tips; The island of love? Liam or Gemma. Displays lottery numbers when rolling. As the skeptical half said, “this is the first time you’ve been right since you married me.”

Thank you for the very kind comments regarding the VONC forecast. Main elements: had no bet (sobs); you really don’t want my running tips; The island of love? Liam or Gemma. Displays lottery numbers when rolling. As the skeptical half said, “the first time you’ve been right since you married me.”

— Jon Tonge (@JonTonge) June 7, 2022

He told the Guardian: “I do quite a bit of political betting, but ironically I didn’t bet last night because I was busy trying to determine the outcome. So it’s a bit bittersweet.

Tonge’s prediction was no accident. Last month he was almost as accurate in calling the result of the Northern Ireland Assembly vote.

He recalled: “I said Sinn Féin would get 26 seats and they would get 27. I said the DUP would get 24 seats and they would get 25.” In the 2017 Assembly elections he also had only one seat and pointed out that elections in Northern Ireland are much more difficult to predict due to the single transferable vote system.

He said: “Last night was a much simpler contest, but I wish I had a bet.”

Tonge said he initially expected Johnson to match his predecessor’s performance. He said: “At the start of the day I thought the result would be virtually the same as the vote of no confidence in Theresa May. But as the day progressed, it became clear that the level of opposition was going to be greater. I wondered how far to go. I hovered around 58%/42%, but in the end I settled for 59%/41%.

He added: “It was an educated guess based on 2019 intake and baseline loyalty to the pledges declared against him. You have Covid lockdown skeptics who turned against it, die-hards who never liked it. But the sequel was quite difficult because there is no big big ideological break here.

Tonge admits a sense of professional pride in his prediction.

“It gives you a nice warm feeling,” he said. But he is also annoyed to have underestimated the scale of the rebellion by a single deputy. “I’m irritated because it would have been nice to have him there,” he said.

However, Tonge’s was not the only correct prediction. In Westminster, as Tory minister Greg Hands pointed out on Monday night after the vote, the bus stop in Parliament Square called it fair.



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